According to a new analysis by the International Food Policy Research Institute, factors such as rising incomes, climate change, rising energy prices, globalization, and urbanization are all converging to revolutionize food production, markets, and consumption (IFPRI). As a direct consequence of this, both the demand for food around the world and its price are anticipated to continue climbing, which poses a threat to the means of subsistence and nourishment of impoverished people in emerging nations. At today's annual general meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, the report titled "The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions" was presented (CGIAR).
According to Joachim von Braun, the principal author of the paper and the director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), "Since the Green Revolution, food prices have been gradually reducing, but it's possible that the days of lowering food prices are finished." "Recently, there has been a significant increase in the demand for feed, food, and fuel, which has resulted in significant price increases. These price increases are not anticipated to decrease in the near future because there are low stocks and slow-growing supplies of agricultural products. The effects of climate change will also have a detrimental influence on food production, adding to the difficulty of satisfying the demand for food around the world and possibly making it more difficult for the world's poorest people to avoid hunger and other health problems. "Economic growth has contributed to contribute to the reduction of hunger, particularly when it is equitable," von Braun continued. "However, it is regrettable that growth does not always trickle down to the lowest-income people."
"Economic growth has contributed to contribute to the reduction of hunger, particularly when it is equitable," von Braun continued. "However, it is regrettable that growth does not always trickle down to the lowest-income people."
Demand from Customers
In recent decades, rapid economic expansion has been seen by a significant portion of the world's underdeveloped regions, most notably China and India. The rise in the median household income, along with the growth in the urban population, is causing shifts in purchasing patterns and consumer preferences. The demand for food around the world is moving away from grains and other staple crops and toward processed foods and high-value agricultural products including vegetables, fruits, meat, and dairy products.
Although many smallholder farmers would like to take advantage of new income-generating opportunities presented by high-value products, there are serious barriers preventing them from entering this market. These barriers include the inability to meet safety and quality standards as well as the inability to produce large quantities for food processors and retailers.
Bioenergy
The production of biofuels as an alternative source of energy in response to rising oil prices is also contributing to significant shifts in the global food situation. These shifts have been brought about by a combination of factors. According to the findings of the study, an increase in the production of bioenergy will have a negative impact on the standard of living of low-income individuals living in developing nations by driving up both the average price of food and its level of volatility. The widespread usage of subsidies for biofuels exacerbates the negative impact on low-income households because these subsidies implicitly function as a levy on essential foods.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has forecast the prospective pricing implications of biofuels for two conceivable scenarios up to the year 2020 using cutting-edge computer modeling:
- Maize prices would rise by 26% and oilseed prices would rise by 18% in the first scenario, which is based on the actual biofuel investment plans of many countries and the assumption that high-potential countries will expand their production of bioenergy. Both of these price increases are based on the assumption that high-potential countries will increase their production of bioenergy.
- Prices for maize and oilseeds would rise by 72 and 44 percent, respectively, under scenario two, which anticipates that the production of biofuels would significantly grow, reaching levels that are twice as high as those shown under scenario one.
The availability of food and the amount of calories consumed would both fall around the globe if crop prices were to increase, with the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa being the most dire in either of the two possible outcomes. As the development of biofuels becomes more lucrative, more land, water, and financial resources will be redirected toward their cultivation. As a result, the global community will be forced to make more compromises between the production of food and fuel.
Agricultural Trade
In addition to biofuels, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) modeled the impact of supply and demand changes on prices and projects that up until 2015, cereal prices could increase by an additional 10 to 20 percent. This would be advantageous for some countries and population groups, but it would be detrimental for others. China and practically all African countries, both of which are net importers of grains, would be negatively impacted by the consequent high prices, while India, which is a net exporter, would be positively impacted by the situation. Overall, the majority of poor people who live in homes that are net consumers of food will be worse off, and it will be much more difficult for them to maintain diets that are both nutritious and well-balanced as a result of the increase in food prices.
However, developing countries would often profit from a more open trading environment worldwide in the agricultural sector. Research conducted by the IFPRI demonstrates that there would be large economic benefits to be gained from opening up and improving market access between industrialized and developing countries; yet, there would not be a major reduction in poverty unless in particular scenarios.
Changes in Climate
It is anticipated that the worldwide agricultural output would fall by a large amount as a direct result of global warming, and the impact on emerging countries will be significantly more severe than it will be on developed nations. When compared with Asia or Latin America, Africa's higher proportion of low-input, rainfed agriculture makes it more susceptible to the effects of climate change. Livestock, which primarily depend on range and grasslands that are impacted by environmental shocks such as climate change, are similarly vulnerable to the varying amounts of rainfall that might be experienced. Increased expenditures to boost agricultural output need to be made in order to mitigate these risks. Additionally, novel insurance systems should be researched in order to pay rural communities and smallholder farmers in the event that rains do not fall.
Recommendations for Public Policy
It is possible that current market trends and government policies will make hunger and poverty worse, particularly for the poorest people in the globe. This is because the global food situation is rapidly deteriorating, which brings with it a variety of dangers and concerns. Therefore, policymakers are obligated to take overt actions to protect low-income families from the adverse repercussions of the situation. The paper suggests that authorities take urgent action in addition to addressing the long-term concerns, which are very important. The actions are:
- Eliminating trade barriers and programs that divert resources away from agriculture is something that developed nations ought to do in order to make it easier for their populations to adapt to sudden shifts in the cost of food. A world that is experiencing growing food scarcity must expand its level of trade, not decrease it.
- It is imperative for developing nations to boost their investments in rural infrastructure and market institutions in order to broaden farmers' access to essential agricultural inputs like fertilizer, seeds, and financing, all of which are necessary for achieving higher levels of output.
- National and international research systems, including the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), should be positioned to invest more heavily in agricultural science and technology to increase agricultural production on a global level. This will help to counteract the rising cost of food.
- In order to alleviate the hazards associated with restricted food access, policymakers should establish social protection policies that place an emphasis on the nutrition of young children. This is especially important for the poorest households.
- Agriculture and food issues should be taken into consideration by policymakers when developing national and international climate change agendas because poor people in developing countries are especially vulnerable to the risks associated with climate change, particularly as it relates to food security. This is why policymakers should take into account agriculture and food issues.
As the global food situation is being rapidly defined by new driving forces, including income growth, climate change, and increased production of biofuels, the international community must give renewed attention to the role of agriculture, nutrition, and health in development policy, according Von Braun. "The global community must give renewed attention to the role of agriculture, nutrition, and health in development policy." "First and foremost, policies must target the world's most impoverished people in order to ensure that those people do not fall behind in the wake of overall economic growth and global advancement,"
